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With back-to-back losses to finish the season, the Chiefs would be virtually guaranteed to earn the tiebreaker over the Jaguars for the first overall selection.
The gap between the strength of schedule of the two teams is pretty wide and it would take a perfect alignment of 15 different games for the tiebreaker to switch hands to the Jaguars. So the Chiefs are in line for the top pick as long as they lose each of the next two games.
With upcoming games against a pair of playoff contenders, the Colts and Broncos, the Chiefs are certainly expected to do so. The Jaguars are huge underdogs against the Patriots in Week 16, but play the Titans in Week 17, one of only two teams that they have been able to beat this season.