1. Peyton Manning, playing at home, coming off a loss
2. Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, coming off a bye week
It's not in my DNA to bet against either one of those two things. I suppose given that Weis and Crennel don't have the finest collections of talent at their disposal, and given that Manning was an absolute killer both in his last home game (he killed his brother) and his final drive last week, I'll expect a big week out of Indy.
I agree that it's a very hard game and the more-than-seven spread makes it even more interesting. You can't blame folks for picking the Colts to win but covering that spread is a difficult task.