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NFL Playoff Picture 2011: Looking At The Chiefs' Very Slim AFC West Hopes

Technically the Kansas City Chiefs are alive in the AFC Playoff picture. Technically.

The stats site gives 5-8 Kansas City exactly a 0.6 percent chance of making the playoffs this season, by far the lowest probability for any team in the league still mathematically alive. While it's wildly improbable that K.C. could sneak in as a wild card - both the Steelers and Ravens are 10-3, and one will certainly take the No. 5 seed - it's still somewhat less wildly improbable for the Chiefs to win the AFC West. Seriously, look:

  • If Denver wins another game or Kansas City loses another game, the Chiefs are mathematically eliminated from the AFC West division race.
  • Kansas City would need to win their next two (vs. Green Bay, vs. Oakland) and Denver would need to lose their next two (vs. Patriots, at Bills).
  • San Diego (6-7) would need to lose their next two games against potential playoff teams (Baltimore, at Detroit).
  • Oakland (7-6) would need to lose their next two games (vs. Detroit, at Kansas City)
  • Kansas City would need to beat Denver at Arrowhead on January 1. The Chiefs and Broncos would both finish 8-8, but Kansas City would have a better division record (4-2) by one game
  • San Diego would need to win at Oakland on January 1. Both teams would finish 7-9, and both would have 2-4 division records.

For more on the Chiefs, check out Arrowhead Pride. For everything NFL, visit SB Nation's NFL page.