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Fantasy Baseball 2012: Eric Hosmer's PECOTA Totals Indicate Possible Sophomore Slump

For fantasy baseball owners looking to the best hitting prospect on the Kansas City Royals for some help this year, you might not like what you read based on his PECOTA projections and the latest commentary from Baseball Prospectus. Michael Street took a closer look at some first and third basemen today and he notes that Eric Hosmer will be fine in the future, but he might take a long route to get to the top hitting first baseman most project him to be for years to come.

Street writes, “Though many Royals fans may stamp their feet and holler at PECOTA’s lack of recognition of one of their young talents, one need only look at Justin Upton to see a young, highly touted player who took several years to achieve consistency… or look at his older brother BJ to see a highly touted young player who has yet to do so. Hosmer, given just a scant 53 percent Improvement Rate, could beat PECOTA, but as I also noted in my column, his chance at a sophomore slump are good too. A full season of production could boost his value more than $4, but all signs point to Hosmer’s perceived value exceeding this, so bid cautiously on Draft Day; only keeper-league owners should be really hot on this guy for now.”

In total, Hosmer is projected to hit .284 with 18 home runs and 85 RBI and 8 stolen bases. Those are fine totals for a second year prospect, but among fantasy first baseman, those numbers are James Loney-esque. In other words, Hosmer fans will hope he breaks out with more power in his second year than what PECOTA projects.